SINGAPORE: Southeast Asia faces a high risk of severe transboundary haze for the rest of 2026, with conditions expected to peak between August and September due to a strong El Nino bringing about hotter and drier conditions, a Singapore think-tank warned on Wednesday (Jun 24).
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) said it has issued a rare “red” warning in its 17-page Haze Outlook 2026 report, which signals a high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in the remaining months of this year.
This is only the second time SIIA has issued its highest-risk rating since it launched the annual outlook in 2019, following a similar assessment in 2023.
Haze returned to Singapore that year as hotspots surged in parts of Sumatra amid El Nino-driven dry conditions. Transboundary haze largely arises from forest and peat fires in the region.
For 2026, SIIA said the heightened risk this year comes as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have increased cost pressures on the agricultural sector, in part due to fuel shortages and the spike in fertiliser prices.
At the same time, the growing demand for biofuels has raised concerns that some producers may expand their plantations by turning to cheaper but unsustainable land-clearing methods, such as the use of fire.
The high-risk season also coincides with tightening budgets amid global economic uncertainty. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto will be facing his first high-risk dry season, the report noted.
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