El Nino likely to bring warmer, drier weather to Singapore in second half of year, raising risk of haze

The most recent El Nino event occurred between 2023 and early 2024, before conditions shifted to La Nina, which contributed to wetter weather in the region through much of 2024 and into early 2026.

DRIER, WARMER MONTHS AHEAD

El Nino is expected to influence Singapore’s weather from June to October, particularly during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, when dry conditions are more likely.

During the last strong El Nino in 2015, Singapore’s total rainfall between June and September was about 35 per cent below the long-term average. 

El Nino events are also associated with higher temperatures. In 2016, when the previous event weakened, average temperatures from March to May reached 29.2°C – 1°C above the long-term average for that period – making it Singapore’s second warmest period for those months on record.

While the upcoming El Nino is expected to start at a moderate strength, it could intensify towards the later part of the southwest monsoon season, around August to September, MSS said.

In addition to El Nino, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also predicted to develop between July and August.

“Singapore and our surrounding regions tend to experience drier conditions as sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are cooler, resulting in less cloud formation,” said MSS, noting that Singapore’s driest year on record occurred in 1997 when both El Nino and positive IOD events occurred.