Singapore Property Sector – Upward trend in residential prices and volume

We saw resilient demand in most of the new projects launched in 3Q25. In the RCR segment, CapitaLand’s LyndenWoods, 336 units were sold at an ASP of $2,462psf, representing a take-up rate of more than 97%. In CCR segment, Frasers’ The Robertson Opus, and UOL’s UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard sold 169 out of 348 units (49% take-up) and 202 out of 301 units (67% take-up) during the quarter, respectively. 

In 4Q 2025, the highlight remains in the CCR sub-segment.  The new launches include Skye at Holland (CCR), Penrith (RCR), Faber Residence (OCR), and Zyon Grand (RCR).   

Driven by the pick-up in new launches in 3Q25, primary sales rose to 2,639 units, an increase of 118% quarter-on-quarter. In total, there were about 4,154 units launched in 3Q25, compared to 1,520 units in 2Q25.  

Resale transaction volume was steady as well, +1% quarter-on-quarter to 3,955 units.  In total, the transaction volume till mid-September was 6,594 units, increasing 28.6% quarter-on-quarter. 

Following the robust transaction volume in 3Q2025, the year-to-date till mid-September 2025 volume reached 12,389 units. There remains a significantly strong pipeline of new launches in 4Q2025.

We believe the commendable sales and healthy take-up rates suggest that the residential market remains resilient. 

Coupled with lower interest rates, with 3-month SORA rates down by 150 basis points over the course of 2025, homebuying demand could see a significant pick-up should there be no further cooling measures introduced by the Government. 

Listed real estate brokers and developers proxies to resilient residential market

We believe the listed real estate brokers represent the most direct proxies to the resilient residential market, with earnings directly leveraged to healthy residential volume growth. 

Among the two, PropNex stands out due to its dominant market share and strong financial position, supported by a net cash balance sheet and potential upside surprise to dividends. 

Despite a strong share price re-rating YTD, PropNex and APAC Realty offer attractive dividend yields of 4.1% and 5.0% respectively, based on our estimates. 

The Singapore real estate developers continue to trade at deep discounts to NAV and offer significant value amid a broad-based re-rating in the Singapore market. 

UOL trades at 0.6x P/B with Singapore representing 86% of assets while GuocoLand trades at 0.5x P/B with Singapore at 74% of assets.  

GuocoLand has significant exposure to the Singapore residential market, concentrating on premium developments. The company also generates recurring income through its investment properties.

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