SINGAPORE: Private-sector economists who monitor the Singapore economy are mostly holding their growth forecasts steady for now, despite recognising risks from the conflict in the Middle East.
CNA contacted 11 economists on Tuesday (Apr 7) about their outlook for Singapore, and only two said they are downgrading their forecasts. Five economists shared their forecasts without elaborating on plans to lower their estimates, while the rest did not provide updated figures.
Ms Sheana Yue, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said the company downgraded its forecast for Singapore from 4.5 per cent to 4.1 per cent in March.
“We are also looking to nudge it down a bit more this month. Last month’s downgrades were more an initial move assuming a more temporary shock, but we have now moved to viewing the Middle East conflict to be a bit more prolonged than initially expected,” she said.
The impact is likely to be more lasting as well, if previous oil shocks serve as a guide, she said. That adds to the need to lower the growth outlook.
The Economist Intelligence Unit also lowered its growth forecast for Singapore.
“We are downgrading our outlook for Singapore’s real GDP growth in 2026 from 3.2 per cent to 2.7 per cent,” said Asia analyst Tay Qi Hang.
He said higher energy costs are already compressing manufacturing activity and consumer spending in Singapore’s key export markets, while increased uncertainty and elevated energy input costs will prompt companies to defer capital expenditure.
