Genting Singapore’s financials are looking up; why is it still losing ground to Marina Bay Sands?

Lee noted the “dozens of mixed quality hotels around the Marina Bay area”, compared with the more limited selection at RWS.

“(RWS has not) got a catchment market that they can draw on that MBS has,” he added. 

Lee said service and quality also set the IRs apart. MBS occupies a “much higher position”, while RWS is seen more as a family holiday destination than a gaming destination.

Tourists’ experiences have reinforced those reputations over the years. 

Since 2023, RWS has generally held a VIP volume share of between 40 and 50 per cent, with a few exceptions, according to DBS estimates.

But by the same measures, this fell to 29.7 per cent in Q4 2025, and continued to decline to just 19.6 per cent in Q1 2026 – though it recovered to 36.4 per cent in the most recent quarter.

George Choi, head of global gaming research and regional conglomerates at Citi Research, said that the market had settled into a “golden split”, with MBS holding about two-thirds and Genting Singapore, one-third. The gap has been widening, and he does not expect a return to that split soon.

MBS had also renovated its property, including converting rooms into suites, helping it command average room rates of around US$1,000 per night.

“With that property, you’re able to appeal to the whale players out there,” he said, using the industry lingo for high wagering players.

On the other hand, upgrading works at RWS began over two years later than MBS, with non-game amenities only gradually reintroduced from H2 2025, he said. Its new chief operating officer also took over only in December last year.

RWS will need more time to catch up, Choi said.

Even so, DBS’ Chee believes the latest results suggest that the pace of RWS’ market share loss may be moderating. For one thing, the stronger-than-expected quarterly performance indicates that some of the operational issues seen earlier in the year were temporary.

The analyst expects MBS to retain 60 to 65 per cent of Singapore’s gaming, but sees little risk of RWS’ share falling below 30 per cent again. The bank estimated its share at 26.5 per cent and 24.6 per cent in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, respectively. 

Lee is less optimistic. Given gaming’s volatility, he called for a longer-term view over quarterly metrics.

By his measure, the market share was split 51 per cent to 48 per cent in favour of MBS, back when the IRs first opened in about 2011. This has shifted to a split of 81 per cent to MBS and 19 per cent to RWS in 2025, he said.

“This long-term picture shows that there’s very clearly a divergence in terms of fate and fortune, with MBS clearly dominating the landscape against RWS.”

Post revamp: Genting or still MBS? 

Both IRs have announced significant capex expansion. 

MBS’ new tower IR2 is being built to the tune of US$8 billion, slated for completion in 2030. It will comprise an all-suite ultra luxury hotel with a rooftop experience, food and beverage and retail options, Mice (meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions) space and a live entertainment arena.

Choi thinks that the 15,000 seat arena will give MBS the control to bring in crowd-pullers during the slow season, or to further boost gross gaming revenue in a stronger period.

Meanwhile, under its S$6.8 billion RWS 2.0 project, Genting Singapore announced plans for a waterfront development, also to be completed in 2030. It will feature two new luxury hotels, a four-storey retail and dining podium, a mountain trail, and a waterfront promenade.

It will also benefit from the Greater Sentosa Master Plan, under which a transport hub is being built to improve the island’s accessibility from the mainland.

“If that works out, then we might have a ball game between the two IRs.”

Casinos are largely similar, so what would make one IR better than the other is their non-gaming amenities, Choi said, adding that it is too early to make the call on whether the gap between the two players will narrow.

Chee believes that while MBS will remain the dominant player, RWS 2.0 should help narrow the gap by refreshing its offerings and “reinforcing its appeal as a more exclusive, resort-style destination on Sentosa”.

Lee expects MBS to reinforce its premium position and is doubtful that RWS’ family focused upgrades will draw more gaming tourists. “How many do you think will be attracted by the mountain trail?”

He questioned RWS’ decision to stick with its original strategy despite losing market share to MBS over the last 15 years.

Either way, Chee expects the upgrades to be a boon for the overall gaming market in Singapore, with both players benefiting from market expansion rather than competing solely for existing demand.

They will drive higher gaming volume, particularly among premium mass and VIP customers who are willing to pay for newer and higher-quality facilities, he said. “In terms of competitive positioning, we do not see a clear winner.”