GDP grew 4.6% in the first quarter, down from 5.7% in H2 2025.
Singapore’s 2%–4% growth outlook may be revised down as refinery disruptions hit manufacturing output, according to a Bank J. Safra Sarasin report.
Economic growth moderated in the first quarter, with GDP expanding 4.6%, down from 5.7% in the second half of 2025, as manufacturing activity contracted.
The bank attributed the slowdown to weaker demand in the biomedical sector, as well as the Middle East conflict’s impact on the chemicals cluster.
Refining activity has been directly affected, with Singapore’s main refineries operating at around 50% to 60% capacity due to their reliance on Middle East crude. More than 70% of crude oil imports come from the region, exposing the petrochemical industry to supply disruptions.
The chemicals cluster, which includes petroleum and petrochemicals, accounts for about 15% of total manufacturing output and around 1.7% of GDP.
“Natural gas is the main source of electricity generation, but Singapore relies mostly on Malaysia and Indonesia for its gas imports,” the report said. “LNG imports from Qatar account for less than 10% of total gas imports.”
