Singapore’s new home sales lull will be short-lived: analyst

September’s developers’ sales take the overall tally in Q3 2025 to 3,337 units (ex. EC), which is nearly three times the 1,212 new units sold in the previous quarter. All in, developers transacted an estimated 7,924 new homes in the first nine months of 2025 – already besting the annual sales in the previous three years from 2022 to 2024.

We project that around 9,000 to 10,000 new private homes (ex. EC) may be sold in the full-year 2025, with the launches in Q4 2025 likely to enjoy healthy buying interest from first-timer homebuyers, HDB upgraders, and property investors amid the moderation in interest rates and positive market sentiment.

In particular, the lower borrowing rates can help to bolster market confidence, improve affordability, and may potentially nudge some fence-sitters to act. As at 15 October 2025, the 3-Month Compounded SORA, which banks use to price home loan packages has eased to around 1.40% p.a., which is the lowest since around mid-August 2022.

Although some prospective buyers may decide to wait for rates to fall further, we believe there are those who prefer to enter the market sooner, as they perceive that home prices may creep up in 2026, when projects with firmer land prices are launched. That said, the macro environment and its potential impact on sentiment remains one to watch, with the escalation in US-China trade tensions once again.

We note that the median unit price gap between CCR non-landed new private homes sold and that of the RCR has widened since the 1.0% gap in Q1 2025. In Q3 2025, the CCR to RCR new sales median unit price gap was 21.6%, up from the 12.3% in Q2 2025 but still narrower than a year ago where the price gap had trended at around the mid-20% range. For Q4 2025, we estimate that the CCR-RCR price gap may likely be maintained.

According to URA Realis caveat data, Singaporeans and Singapore PR continued to make up the majority of the new non-landed private home sales (ex. EC) in September, at 85% and 9% respectively. Meanwhile, foreigners (non-PR) accounted for 6% of the sales during the month, which is the highest monthly proportion since 6.2% in October 2023. We do not think this is indicative of a resurgence in foreign buying demand but rather, likely a case of arithmetic due to the lower overall sales volume.

In absolute terms, there were 15 transactions by foreigners (NPR) in September, lower than the 25 transactions in August. The projects which foreigners (NPR) bought into during the month were: Promenade Peak; Grand Dunman; River Green; Aurea; Bagnall Haus; Canberra Crescent Residence; Canninghill Piers; Nava Grove; Orchard Sophia; Tembusu Grand, and Union Square Residences.”