Rystad Energy’s Mr Pandey said there were limits to how much more gas Indonesia could divert to domestic use over the next few years, with upcoming projects such as Mako expected to meet Batam’s demand, while pipeline capacity and other infrastructure constraints would restrict further diversions.
Beyond a certain point, he added, cutting exports could force Indonesian producers to reduce production rather than simply redirecting gas to another buyer.
He noted that some changes to gas flows had already been planned as early as 2024, signalled by arrangements such as gas sales and swap agreements relating to gas fields such as Jambi Merang.
On the whole, the latest cuts should be “manageable” for Singapore, which has been preparing for potential disruptions by diversifying its gas supply, said Mr Pandey – barring any further changes such as deeper reductions or field production disruptions.
While the latest reduction is expected to be manageable, the bigger test for Singapore could come after 2028, when existing gas export contracts start expiring, he added.
Dr Broadstock noted that Singapore had already been reviewing and reconfiguring its gas imports following disruptions to global energy supply chains caused by the Middle East conflict.
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