15-month wait-out rule removal unlikely to cause HDB resale prices to surge: Analysts

SINGAPORE: The removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private owners buying Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats may unlock pent-up demand from households looking to right-size but is unlikely to trigger another sharp increase in resale prices, according to property analysts.

With HDB resale prices moderating, a growing pipeline of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) over the next few years and buyers continuing to have alternatives such as Build-to-Order (BTO) flats, experts said the market is better placed to absorb the additional demand.

National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat announced on Tuesday (Jul 28) that the wait-out period will be scrapped with immediate effect, allowing eligible private property owners to buy non-subsidised HDB resale flats without waiting 15 months after selling their private homes.

Analysts noted that the restriction was introduced when HDB resale prices were rising rapidly. Since then, the market has cooled.

HDB resale prices have declined for two consecutive quarters since the start of the year. This follows five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth.

Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said the key objectives of the cooling measure had largely been achieved, pointing to moderating HDB resale prices and lower resale transaction volumes as signs that the public housing market has stabilised.

Mr Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore, said the removal of the wait-out period will give private homeowners greater flexibility to right-size, while the larger pipeline of flats reaching MOP should help absorb the additional demand and preserve overall market stability.

Since its introduction in 2022, HDB has processed about 1,800 appeals annually from private property owners to waive the 15-month wait-out period.

This number has been “stable” over the last few years, with HDB acceding to about one in four appeals, the ministry said in a written parliamentary reply last year. This is mainly for households in financial difficulties or extenuating circumstances, who have no alternative housing options.

DEMAND LIKELY CONCENTRATED IN LARGER FLATS

Analysts CNA spoke to said the biggest impact is likely to be felt in the market for larger resale flats.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Group, said the cooling measure had achieved its objective of reducing demand from private property owners for five-room or larger flats.

Transaction volumes for five-room resale flats fell from 6,951 units in 2022 to 5,966 units in 2025, while executive and multi-generation flat sales declined from 1,946 to 1,539 units over the same period.

“Based on current sentiments, Huttons Data Analytics predicts that the volume of five-room and executive/multi-gen flats sold in 2026 may be similar to 2025,” he said.

Meanwhile, four-room resale flat transactions remained broadly stable at around 11,000 units annually, suggesting demand did not spill over significantly into smaller flats, he added.

With the restriction lifted, Mr Lee said he expects some former private homeowners to return to the market for larger flats.

“This may potentially provide support to the HDB resale market which has been sluggish in the first half of 2026,” he said, adding that resale prices could stabilise in the second half of the year rather than spike.

He added that first-time buyers continue to have alternatives, including BTO flats, ECs and private homes, making a sharp rise in HDB resale prices unlikely.

Similarly, Ms Sun said the renewed demand is likely to be concentrated in larger resale flats, as former private homeowners are typically cash-rich after selling their private homes and tend to prioritise larger units that offer more space and value.

With more HDB flats reaching MOP and another batch of new flats scheduled to be released in October this year, Ms Sun said price growth may remain subdued in the second half of the year, hampered by macroeconomic uncertainties and a dimmer job outlook.

Mr Lee added that prices of resale flats may “possibly stabilise” in the second half of the year.

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