Does a degree mean job security? Recent retrenchment data challenges that assumption, say experts

Adding to that, Mr Neo’s sense was that companies that have open positions may not hire for them if they are able to trudge along without filling the vacancy.

“It’s not that I’m not getting job interviews, it’s just that things are changing so rapidly right now in this environment that everybody is tightening their purses,” he said

The lower re-entry rate for degree holders may be because higher-earning workers have built up more wealth and savings, buying time to consider their next career moves, while lower-earning workers may be forced to take the next available job out of necessity, said Assoc Prof Theseira.

But other structural factors might also explain this.

The specialisation of higher-skilled jobs, particularly for older workers, makes it much less likely that similar jobs requiring the same specialisations exist, especially if the entire industry is shifting, said the labour economist.

“On the other hand, workers with lower skills tend to have less desirable jobs, but because the returns to their skills are lower, they also have a wider range of comparable opportunities,” he said.

This view was echoed by those involved in AI skills training for workers.

“Diploma and trade-trained workers tend to occupy roles with stronger physical, relational or applied components,” which are augmented rather than replaced by AI, said Mr Tan Weng Han, head of policy and partnerships at training outfit Vertical Institute.

“Their roles are also more standardised and transferable, meaning there are more similar openings to move into when displacement happens. The demand is always there.”

Mr Tan added that those who entered the workforce through “competency-based pathways” such as the polytechnics, Institutes of Technical Education and professional qualifications “were never given the luxury of an ultimate credential”.

“They learned on the job, proved capability through applied output, and built a habit of iterative skill acquisition from the start,” he said.

“That habit is now having a structural advantage in a market where employers are increasingly asking ‘can I train this person to use a new tool?’ rather than ‘what did this person graduate with?’”