Avatar: Fire and Ash Becomes Third Film in the Franchise to Surpass $1 Billion Globally — but Will It Match Avatar 1 or 2 at the Box Office?

Avatar: Fire and Ash has become the third film in the franchise to surpass $1 billion at the global box office, but questions remain on whether it will end up matching Avatar 1 or 2 by the end of its theatrical run — or convince Disney to green light Avatar 4 and 5.

On weekend three, James Cameron’s Fire and Ash made another $40 million domestically, marking a 37% drop week on week. It’s now up to $306 million domestically. Fire and Ash is proving a bigger hit internationally — particularly in China — with $777.1 million so far from theaters. That makes for a grand total of $1.083 billion. Disney said Fire and Ash pushes the Avatar franchise total past $6.35 billion globally.

The special effects-heavy Avatar films cost a huge amount of money to produce, but they have historically made billions of dollars at the box office. Avatar 1 remains the highest-grossing movie of all time (not adjusted for inflation), and has earned a staggering $2.9 billion across several theatrical runs. Avatar: The Way of Water has earned $2.3 billion, meanwhile, cementing it as the third-highest grossing film of all time — just ahead of Cameron’s own Titanic.

Will Fire and Ash end up matching the box office hauls of its predecessors? Fire and Ash is slower to $1 billion than both Avatar 1 and 2, but not by much. The Way of Water, released in 2022, hit $1 billion 14 days after launch, and Avatar, released in 2009, reached $1 billion after 17 days. Fire and Ash managed $1 billion 18 days after release.

The Avatar films typically show impressive staying power at the global box office, particularly internationally, so the coming weeks will be crucial. Adding a helping hand, Disney is drip-feeding Avengers: Doomsday teaser trailers ahead of Fire and Ash in theaters in a bid to encourage repeat viewings (the X-Men trailer is set to be replaced by a fourth next week).

Perhaps the pertinent question is, will Avatar 3 end up making enough money theatrically to convince Disney to greenlight Avatar 4 and 5? Disney has given both sequels release dates already: Avatar 4 currently has a December 21, 2029 release date, with Avatar 5 due out December 19, 2031. Cameron, now 71, would be close to 80 years old by the time it all wraps up.

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But will he get the chance? In the run up to Fire and Ash’s release, Cameron admitted he was feeling nervous about the film’s box office performance and expressed concern about the “forces” working against theatrical releases in 2025.

Speaking on The Town with Matthew Belloni podcast, Cameron said there was potential for “sequelitis.” He added: “people tend to dismiss sequels unless it’s the third Lord of the Rings film and you want to see what happens to everybody, which in my mind this is — this is the culmination of a story arc, but that may not be how the public sees it.” And there’s the “one-two punch” of streaming and Covid, which means fewer people are going to the movies — 75% of the number in 2019, Cameron suggested.

When pressed on how much Avatar: Fire and Ash cost to make, Cameron wouldn’t be drawn into divulging a figure, only suggesting it was a lot of money, and so the movie will have to make a lot of money to turn a profit.

“It is one metric f**k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f**k tons of money to make a profit,” he said. “I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?”

And on that point, Cameron admitted he was “absolutely” ready to walk away from Avatar if Fire and Ash flops. “I’ve been in Avatar land for 20 years,” he said. “Actually 30 years because I wrote it in ‘95, but I wasn’t working continuously on it for those first 10 years. Yeah, absolutely, sure. If this is where it ends, cool.” But what about open story threads? “There’s one open thread. I’ll write a book!” Cameron responded.

Disney has yet to comment on the prospects of Avatar 4 and 5, but announcing Fire and Ash’s $1 billion milestone tonight, the company called the figure “another monumental achievement for James Cameron’s groundbreaking franchise and underscoring its unparalleled connection with audiences worldwide.”

“Avatar: Fire and Ash has demonstrated the franchise’s signature theatrical staying power, building its global total through sustained performance driven by premium-format demand, and extended international play,” Disney continued, “hallmarks that have defined the Avatar phenomenon since 2009.”

Photo by Stéphane Mouchmouche / Hans Lucas / AFP via Getty Images.

Wesley is Director, News at IGN. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can reach Wesley at wesley_yinpoole@ign.com or confidentially at wyp100@proton.me.