Economists raise Singapore’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.1%: MAS survey

In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.6 per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025.

Geopolitical risks, including an escalation in trade tensions and wars, were the most cited downside risk to the outlook for the Singapore economy. The economists also flagged the burst of the artificial intelligence bubble (AI), with spillovers to financial markets as well as external slowdown as a potential risk.

Meanwhile, most respondents cited a sustained AI-led tech cycle upturn as an “upside risk” to Singapore’s economic outlook, with resilient global growth and the easing of trade tensions as key upside risks.

Their inflation forecasts remained unchanged from the previous survey. The median projection for headline or overall inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), remains at 0.9 per cent for the full year.

CPI-All Items inflation excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes. 

Meanwhile core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transportation costs, is forecast at 0.7 per cent, unchanged from the previous survey.