\n<\/p>\n
Each workday begins with a weather briefing, where forecasters review overnight developments, assess current conditions and discuss what could happen over the rest of the day.<\/span><\/p>\n But even with all the information available, predicting where haze will travel is far from straightforward.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cWhat’s difficult is haze can develop very differently each time, because smoke plumes travel hundreds of kilometres,\u201d said Mr Lim.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cAs it travels, it may disperse, it may change its direction, it may travel at different heights.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Rainfall can also affect how much haze remains in the air.<\/span><\/p>\n To make their assessments, forecasters study satellite images to identify fires and track smoke plumes.<\/span><\/p>\n They also examine wind and rainfall forecasts, along with models that estimate how haze may spread and affect air quality.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>We believe that no particular one model is always correct, so we cross-check it with multiple models,\u201d Mr Lim said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n He recalled one particularly challenging haze episode when he spotted dense haze over Kalimantan, hundreds of kilometres away, drifting slowly towards Singapore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n He could see the smoke approaching, but he could not tell whether the densest haze would reach Singapore, or how severely it might affect air quality.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe thing is, in this whole dense patch of haze, there were some (parts) that were more dense than others, and there are some parts of cleaner air,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The uncertainties made the forecast particularly challenging, given the potential consequences of getting it wrong.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n “There’s a lot at stake because a lot of stakeholders rely on the forecast to make decisions,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Despite the pressure, Mr Lim said he takes comfort in knowing he can rely on his colleagues.<\/span><\/p>\n “It’s not easy, but it’s comforting to know that I have a team of forecasters with me, and they are all skilled professionals who have been doing this a long time,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
Read Full Article At Source <\/a>
\n