<\/p>\nshared socio-economic pathways<\/p>\n
<\/a> \u2013 a framework commonly employed in climate studies to describe global action towards tackling climate change. <\/p>\n
The most optimistic scenario assumes global progress on tackling climate change, with countries committed to sustainable practices and low greenhouse gas emissions. <\/p>\n
The fossil fuel-driven scenario, on the other hand, refers to the opposite, where progress on climate action stalls and countries step up fossil fuel use for economic and technological development.<\/p>\n
The middle-of-the-road scenario assumes that countries continue their historical patterns of development.<\/p>\n
The data shows that overall PM2.5 concentration across the region is projected to fall by 2.2 per cent to 9.8 per cent across all three trajectories. This is because increased precipitation, caused by climate change, helps disperse and remove pollutants from the air. <\/p>\n
Precipitation refers to any form of water, including rain, snow and hail, which falls to the earth\u2019s surface from clouds. Rain droplets, for example, can collect pollutants as they fall, acting as a cleaning agent. <\/p>\n
However, the number of premature deaths will still increase in two scenarios.<\/p>\n
In the most optimistic scenario, the region will experience slightly warmer temperatures with a modest increase in rainfall and humidity. <\/p>\n
Although these conditions support pollutant removal from the air, localised dry conditions along densely populated areas, concentrated in Indonesia and Thailand, will cause people there to be more exposed to PM2.5.<\/p>\n
This could lead to a 7.2 per cent increase in premature deaths, and economic loss will increase from $560 billion to $580.5 billion, the study found. <\/p>\n
This is also the case in the fossil fuel-driven scenario, where the number of premature deaths is projected to increase by 9.6 per cent, causing an economic loss of $767.5 billion. <\/p>\n
Singapore is especially vulnerable to such conditions, where unfavourable conditions aggravate accumulation of local pollutants and cause regional haze transport, Prof Yim said. He added that temperatures in Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar could rise by up to 2 deg C.<\/p>\n
In the middle-of-the-road scenario, overall premature deaths will decrease by 1.8 per cent and economic loss will fall to $319.5 billion.<\/p>\n
This is because South-east Asia is projected to be warmer and wetter, helping to disperse pollutants in the air.<\/p>\n
The findings suggest that climate change and PM2.5 pollution, intertwined as they are, require co-benefit strategies to mitigate, Prof Yim said.<\/p>\n
He noted that climate mitigation policies that fail to address air pollution may exacerbate health and economic burdens in vulnerable and under-represented tropical regions.<\/p>\n
According to Adjunct Associate Professor Koh Tieh Yong, who was not part of the study, however, there are currently no such tangible co-management strategies available.<\/p>\n
Though a scientifically welcomed approach, the findings should not be taken at face value given that, in reality, \u201cpollutant emission rates are never going to be constant in an economically fast-developing region like South-east Asia\u201d, said Prof Koh, who specialises in atmospheric physics at the National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n
\u201cA starting point is to time efforts and channel resources that mitigate pollution according to monsoon seasons and inter-annual climate variations to optimise impact on air quality improvement,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Prof Yim\u2019s team is also studying how climate change will affect ground-level ozone pollution, and plans to eventually assess how air pollutant emission, land use and climate change intersect.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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