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This is an IGN opinion piece from Alex Zalben, who has been covering movies and TV for years with a focus on Marvel and DC, as well as hosting the regular live show and podcast Comic Book Club. One time he touched the Spider-Man balloon before the Macy\u2019s Thanksgiving Day Parade and cried.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\nThis weekend, Spider-Man: Brand New Day<\/u> swung higher than a spider has ever swung before with a record-breaking box office that didn\u2019t just include the number one opening day of all time<\/u>, beating Avengers: Endgame, but also toppled Endgame\u2019s weekend record with a stunning $360 million for the biggest US opening of all time (it came in hot at number two of all time internationally, but still, not too shabby). And while that\u2019s a reason for Sony Pictures to celebrate like only a spider can, it clinches a feeling that\u2019s been bubbling for the past few years: The Marvel Cinematic Universe as we know it is over.<\/p>\n
Pretty toxic take, right? Stop raining on our parade? If you can listen to the reasoning for a moment over the cries of \u201coh, Marvel is so back,\u201d you can see a pretty clear pattern here, and a clearer path for success for Marvel Studios that will be impossible to ignore. The short version? Going forward, they\u2019ll be making Spider-Man movies, Avengers movies, and that\u2019s pretty much it. Sure there will be outliers, and we\u2019re all excited (or, most of us are) for the MCU\u2019s upcoming X-men reboot<\/u>. But no Marvel movie or TV property has reached the heights of Spider-Man or Avengers, and in a time when Marvel \u2013 and perhaps more importantly, its parent company Disney \u2013 is wrestling with how to replicate the monoculture success of its first 10 years, they\u2019re going to slip back into what comfortably works. Thus far that\u2019s been Peter Parker and movies that are labeled Avengers movies, but are basically the modern equivalent of Circus of the Stars (look it up, kids).<\/p>\n\n\nThwip!<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<\/section>\nHow the MCU Got to This Point<\/h2>\n While probably too much ink has been spilled over the state of the MCU post-Endgame, it\u2019s undeniable that, whatever you think about the quality of the movies and TV shows being produced by the studio, the actual viewership, be it in movie theaters or on streaming, has dropped over time. Part of that has nothing to do with Marvel and is an indicator of changing habits with moviegoers and streaming viewers, and is something that every<\/em> studio and production company is wrestling with\u2026 And frankly will continue to wrestle with, as \u201cchange\u201d has been the operating word of the entertainment industry since a train first came through a tunnel on screen, spooking audience members into thinking it was going to crash right into them.<\/p>\nBut when it comes to Marvel specifically in the past five years versus the entire history of film, the box office returns haven\u2019t been returning the same way they did reliably prior to 2019. There have been pops here and there, but if we\u2019re looking at the billion-dollar worldwide benchmark that has become the default success marker in the past decade, only Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine have crossed that point, while the rest of the MCU has barely scratched or passed the $500 million mark. Is that still an insane amount of money? For sure. But we\u2019re talking about what studios look at, which includes what shareholders look at, which is a non-stop, upwardly moving spiral of profit. The Fantastic Four: First Steps capping out at $522 million ain\u2019t gonna cut it, and frankly isn\u2019t that<\/em> much better than the disastrous worldwide take of The Marvels ($206 million).<\/p>\nFantastic Four: First Steps capping out at $522 million ain\u2019t gonna cut it, and frankly isn\u2019t
that<\/em> much better than the disastrous worldwide take of The Marvels ($206 million).\u201c<\/span><\/span><\/div>\nOn the TV side, we\u2019ve been seeing the same sort of attrition, with viewership sloughing off over time. An important note here for clarification: while box office numbers are widely and regularly reported, streaming numbers are a little trickier. There are plenty of fan rankers and tracking of \u201csocial conversation,\u201d but self-reported numbers by streamers often require multiple asterisks of clarification (\u201cthe second biggest streaming debut for a character named Loki this month on a Tuesday,\u201d etc., etc.). So it\u2019s helpful to look at outlets like Nielsen, which provide independent reporting of streaming viewership usually on about a month delay. That said, where once Marvel was a regular on Nielsen\u2019s charts, later seasons of TV have barely scratched the Top 10 Streaming Originals chart, with Daredevil: Born Again failing to chart at all, and Wonder Man popping in for its first week then popping out. And not to keep focusing on that billion number, but the billion minutes benchmark that Netflix regularly breaks on Nielsen\u2019s chart has been a faraway dream for Marvel TV\u2019s Disney+ shows for the past few years.<\/p>\n
Without getting too in the weeds here, we\u2019ll also clarify that when it comes to streaming, big pops aren\u2019t the only important measure, and the vast library of MCU movies and TV shows on Disney+ is assuredly a subscription draw for the company, as is the repeated binge viewing of MCU sagas leading to big events like Avengers: Doomsday.)<\/p>\n
The point here is that the MCU, as it stands, is not working the way it should be, both in movies and on TV. And the cracks are starting to show even in the past week leading up to Spider-Man\u2019s boffo BO (and no, not the kind he gets from jumping around in that costume all day). First, Marvel canceled the already renewed Wonder Man<\/u>, conveniently after show co-creator Destin Daniel Cretton was done with his press tour and red carpets for Brand New Day, which he directed. As noted above, Wonder Man wasn\u2019t a ratings killer, but it was one of the more universally critically acclaimed series from the MCU in recent history, and even nabbed a surprise Emmy nomination for star Yahya Abdul-Mateen II. And a day later, Mahershala Ali stuck a stake in the long in development Blade reboot<\/u>, essentially saying he\u2019s moving on from the project. (For his part, Marvel boss Kevin Feige earlier called himself a \u201cgigantic loser<\/u>\u201d for not getting the movie, which was announced in 2019, to work.)<\/p>\n
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Spider-Man: Brand New Day – Our Biggest Burning Questions<\/h3>\n<\/span><\/output><\/p>\n
The Shifting Priorities of Kevin Feige<\/h2>\n It\u2019s hard not to look at these two items of news and see how Marvel is shifting priorities. Yes, critical acclaim is important, but so are shows and movies that make their money back. While there was no official reason for the un-renewal of Wonder Man, with a change in Marvel\u2019s corporate structure \u2013 Brad Winderbaum was promoted to Head of Marvel Television, Animation, Comics & Franchise, and the comics division is moving from New York to LA<\/u> \u2013 usually comes a reassessment of priorities. Similarly, there\u2019s only so many times Marvel can come close to shooting Blade before it becomes unreasonably expensive to produce what should be a quick and dirty vampire killing movie. Like Wesley Snipes once quipped, some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill, and despite what should have been a smooth downhill skating sesh (Ali as Blade? Come on), it\u2019s clear this was actually becoming a money pit proposition for them that would never make its budget back.<\/p>\n
And looking forward on the TV side, while there are possibly more announcements to come at this month\u2019s D23 Expo that may prove the whole thesis of this article moot, right now on the live-action side we have VisionQuest debuting in October, bringing the \u2013 successful, both in viewership and critically \u2013 WandaVision\/Agatha All Along trilogy to a close, and Daredevil: Born Again Season 3, which should hit next March. But otherwise, nothing live-action has been announced, and nothing seems to be in production that potentially could hit your screens next year (or the year after, though there\u2019s time). As for animation, we\u2019ve got additional seasons of Your Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man and X-Men \u201897 coming, as well as Marvel Zombies Season 2. But this seems to be a focus on sure hits \u2013 or hits that meet the expected mark \u2013 versus the \u201cmovies on TV\u201d approach Marvel took for years that didn\u2019t quite pan out.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\nSo what about the movies they have<\/em> announced? Surely the future of Marvel movies is more than Avengers: Doomsday, Avengers: Secret Wars, and whatever form Spider-Man 5 takes. And yes, there will be other films. Specifically, as announced at San Diego Comic-Con<\/u>, we\u2019ve got Ghost Rider and Black Panther III, both coming in 2028.<\/p>\n The latter is a no-brainer if Marvel is, indeed, taking the sure bet route. Ryan Coogler is a visionary director who nabs Oscar nominations for Marvel that aren\u2019t just of the special effects variety. And Black Panther cracked a billion dollars with a culture-shifting movie that continues to be ranked among the best Marvel movies ever made, and even some non-exclusive-to-Marvel lists. Wakanda Forever, the sequel, was a watch complicated by the tragic demise of star Chadwick Boseman, but continued that Oscar nom trend and tapped out at $859 million worldwide. The Threequel could continue that downward box office trend, but with a reliable director and stars and a clear vision for the movie, if we\u2019re talking bets it\u2019s more likely this will match or overperform the sequel, rather than underperform.<\/p>\n
But the Black Panther franchise is better viewed as its own, unique thing, like how the Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy were James Gunn movies more than Marvel movies. The success of Black Panther III doesn\u2019t get Marvel back on track, it merely continues to cement Coogler\u2019s status as a director with vision who crafts unique theatrical experiences (see his surprise announcement that this will be the first Marvel movie shot entirely on celluloid).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/span><\/p>\nGhost Rider, on the other hand, has a lot going for it: Ryan Gosling is a beloved movie star who has been dying to do his take on the flame-headed motorcycle driver; and director Shawn Levy is a reliable, on-budget, on-time filmmaker who directs crowd-pleasers ranging from Free Guy to, more importantly, Deadpool & Wolverine. But there\u2019s actually a lot working against this somehow becoming a billion-dollar franchise, and not the least of it is this is the third take on Ghost Rider after the goofy Nicolas Cage movies, and the not-quite-beloved take on the character on Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. Similar to how The Fantastic Four: First Steps had a cap for being the fifth time around with the characters, Ghost Rider could knock it out of the park or it could strike out. Also of note, Gosling isn\u2019t the reliable box office draw folks seem to think he is. Barbie was a world-wide success, but you can\u2019t credit Gosling for that alone. And of his entire filmography, only La La Land and Project Hail Mary have cracked half a billion worldwide. Again, a huge amount of money, but not a guarantee that Ghost Rider is Marvel\u2019s next billion-dollar franchise.<\/p>\n
And then there\u2019s X-Men. Yes, there\u2019s excitement there to see what Marvel Studios can do with the characters, unfettered from the Fox movie universe. And \u2013 mild spoilers for Spider-Man: Brand New Day past this point<\/strong> \u2013 it doesn\u2019t hurt that one of the X-Men characters was introduced in the aforementioned massive box office success. But there\u2019s thus far been a ceiling for X-Men movies at the box office that\u2019s only been surpassed by Deadpool movies starring Ryan Reynolds and Wolverine\/X-Men movies starring Hugh Jackman. Devoid of that duo, there\u2019s not as much juice in the X-Men on screen as the massive popularity of the characters might imply.<\/p>\nAnd yet, Marvel Studios is reportedly hooking the whole next \u201cSaga\u201d on them, putting all their chips in the mutant pile and hoping that this particular reinvention will pay off in a way that\u2019s more in line with the MCU reboot of Spider-Man than the MCU reboot of Fantastic Four. Could it work? For sure, anything can<\/em> work. But X-Men movies showed diminishing returns over two decades, and X-Men \u201897 hasn\u2019t exactly been tearing up the Nielsen charts. (Again: this is not about quality, it\u2019s merely about what Marvel is using to chart their path forward.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n