There’s a meteor coming, which naturally leads to lots of questions. How big is this meteor? Will it arrive on schedule? And most importantly: what if the meteor doesn’t make enough money?<\/p>\n
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If all goes according to plan, we’re officially five months away from the release of Grand Theft Auto 6<\/em>, which will be released Nov. 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X. It’s been in development for eight years, including two delays, and is arguably the most-hyped game in history. Major publishers have moved their games (which in any other year would’ve been considered the year’s biggest) out of its release window. Developer Rockstar Games itself has claimed it will be the “largest game launch in history.” Some have said it will be the biggest entertainment<\/em> launch in history. Publisher Take-Two Interactive forecasts $8 billion in revenue this year.<\/p>\n The question isn’t if GTA 6<\/em> will be huge; that’s a foregone conclusion. The question is if it can meet the hype \u2014 and what will happen if it doesn’t.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Some industry analysts have suggested GTA 6<\/em> cost well over $1 billion to make, though in a May 2026 interview with Business Insider, Take-Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnick declined to confirm or deny that figure. If true, it would make GTA 6<\/em> the most expensive game development project in history. (Many AAA games these days can cost hundreds of millions to develop, but none have been reported to join the three-comma club.) And this doesn’t even account for the marketing budget, which admittedly might be fractional, given that the game is out in less than half a year and all we’ve seen are two trailers and a handful of screenshots.<\/p>\n It’s impossible to say how many copies GTA 6<\/em> will need to sell to officially not flop, since we can’t say for sure how much it cost to make, don’t know how much it will cost players at launch, and can’t even say if it’ll have any premium editions that could include early access in for an additional cost, juicing the numbers. But let’s be generous and assume that flat $1 billion figure is accurate. And let’s ignore the analysts who suggest GTA 6<\/em> should sell for $100 and assume it will be listed at $80, the current high bar for standard editions of AAA games. By that math, Rockstar would need to sell 12.5 million copies of GTA 6<\/em> to recoup its development costs.<\/p>\n If any studio can do it, it’s Rockstar. In 2008, Grand Theft Auto 4<\/em> sold 6 million copies in its first week alone, tallying up $500 million in revenue. Five years later, in 2013, Grand Theft Auto 5<\/em> made $800 million the day it launched, amounting to roughly 13 million copies, according to industry estimates. Rockstar put up with the 2018 release of Red Dead Redemption 2<\/em>, which sold $725 million across its first weekend. Take-Two did not share how many copies that amounted to, but did call it at the time the “single-biggest opening weekend in the history of entertainment.” (Take-Two also did not explain how Red Dead Redemption 2<\/em>‘s $725 million was larger than Grand Theft Auto 5<\/em>‘s $800 million from five years prior.)<\/p>\n But the video game landscape has changed dramatically in the years since Rockstar’s last game; an entire pandemic and subsequent recession have happened in the interim. Games are up to 33% more expensive. Console prices have gone up<\/em> \u2014 six years into their life cycles. PC components are [insert screaming noise<\/em>]. This is all amid a forecast dip in discretionary spending and a broader downswing in video game spending. Remember that GTA 5<\/em> arrived to a pre-Fortnite<\/em> and –PUBG<\/em> landscape. <\/p>\n There’s also the open question of… what if GTA 6<\/em> is just not very good? With its Nov. 19 release date putting it out of Game Awards eligibility, Rockstar clearly isn’t worried about it becoming an awards darling, but word of mouth is nevertheless important. It’s not hard to picture a world where, with everything everywhere getting more expensive all at once, GTA 6<\/em> becomes the first Rockstar game in years where gamers wait to hear about reviews before buying it without question on day one.<\/p>\n As Polygon’s Oli Welsh previously pointed out, a potential GTA 6<\/em> isn’t just bad for Rockstar or for Take-Two. It will affect publishers, media, influencers, players, console-makers \u2014 everyone. The entire business, at this point, is riding on GTA 6<\/em>‘s success.<\/p>\n There’s a meteor coming. There’s no avoiding its impact. Let’s hope it leaves the biggest crater possible.<\/p>\n \n GTA 6 has to meet wild expectations
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