SINGAPORE \u2013 On prediction market Polymarket<\/span><\/a>, hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake in bets on what the highest temperature will be in Singapore on any given day. <\/p>\n Since the trend began in March, the size of this daily market reached an all-time high of more than US$260,000 (S$330,000) in total volume of bets on April 13. On that day, the highest temperature recorded by Weather Underground (which the market uses as its measure) was 34 deg C. <\/p>\n Similar markets exist for users to bet on what the highest daily temperature will be at other locations, from Hong Kong to New York.<\/p>\n Prediction markets are platforms where users can bet on events, as varied as the outcome of sports matches, to whether the United States and Iran will negotiate a peace deal.<\/p>\n Proponents of prediction markets, including the platforms themselves, have long argued that individuals placing a financial stake on an outcome can more accurately predict a result than experts or surveys.<\/p>\n However, as users embrace betting on topics such as the weather, the inherent contradictions of prediction markets \u2013 and whether it is just gambling under a more cerebral guise \u2013 become more apparent.<\/p>\n To Dr Yifan Feng, assistant professor at the National University of Singapore Business School, these temperature-related markets illustrate \u201chow easily platforms can turn even small uncertainties into tradeable contracts\u201d. <\/p>\n \u201cThat demonstrates the flexibility of the prediction market idea, but it also reminds us that not every market is equally informative or meaningful,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n Singapore was among the first in the world to ban leading prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket was blocked by the Gambling Regulatory Authority in December 2024. <\/p>\n Singapore users are barred from Kalshi and Polymarket. When users in Singapore attempt to access both sites, they will see a warning that they are trying to access an illegal gambling site. <\/p>\n Those who circumvent the Government\u2019s blocking may be considered as having committed an offence under the Gambling Control Act, according to an April 17 statement from the Gambling Regulatory Authority, Infocomm Media Development Authority and the police. A person convicted of gambling with unlicensed providers is liable for a fine, a jail term or both.<\/p>\n Predicting the weather has become a popular subject for those who bet on Polymarket.<\/p>\n PHOTO: SCREENGRAB FROM POLYMARKET<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Outside Singapore, however, prediction markets are reaching their cultural peak. <\/p>\n In the first three months of 2026, the volume traded on leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket came in at nearly US$60 billion, which was more than the entire volume traded in all of 2025, according to CNBC.<\/p>\n Prediction market Kalshi is being sued by users over how it resolved a controversial market on whether Iran\u2019s then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would leave office.<\/p>\n PHOTO: SCREENGRAB FROM KALSHI<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n A much-touted example of prediction markets\u2019 value is that such markets estimated then US presidential candidate Donald Trump was more likely to win the 2024 presidential election, breaking with most polls at the time which said the race was too close to call.<\/p>\n Dr Jia Yanwei, an assistant professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who studies prediction markets, compares it to a \u201cfinancially incentivised opinion poll\u201d.<\/p>\n However, prediction markets have been marred by criticism over insider trading and the ethics of betting on political events.<\/p>\n An analysis by The New York Times found that just hours before the <\/span><\/a>US<\/span><\/a> and Israel launched an attack on Iran<\/span><\/a> in March, bets totalling US$855,000 were made on Polymarket correctly predicting the strike.<\/p>\n These bets were anomalous and suggestive of insider knowledge because they broke with the majority of Polymarket users at the time who predicted that a strike would not happen on that day.<\/p>\n In March, Kalshi was sued by users over failing to pay out more than US$54 million to those who had bet that Iran\u2019s then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would leave office before March 1. <\/p>\n<\/picture><\/div>
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