[SINGAPORE] The Iranian and US blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are reviving anxiety over the fate of Asia\u2019s most crucial strategic bottleneck.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Malacca between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore links the Indian and Pacific Oceans through a channel just 2.7 kilometres at its tightest point, more than 10 times narrower than Hormuz. It carries roughly 40 per cent of global trade, including the bulk of oil flows from the Middle East to Asian economic powerhouses, including China, Japan and South Korea.<\/p>\n
Patrolled by the US Navy\u2019s Seventh Fleet, the strait has long been identified by China\u2019s leaders as a vulnerability in a war scenario, with the \u201cMalacca Dilemma\u201d popularised during the presidency of Hu Jintao in the early 2000s. The picture is further complicated by competing territorial claims, China\u2019s increased ability to project military power beyond its shores and the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n
In announcing his blockade, Trump said that he instructed the US Navy to interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran. While it appears so far that few ships are getting through, the seas in and around the Malacca Strait have been a key area where Iran\u2019s dark fleet has transferred oil to other vessels to disguise sales to countries in Asia, mostly China.<\/p>\n
\u201cThough I wouldn\u2019t point to any clear and present danger now existing for the Malacca Strait, anyone worried about the weaponisation of maritime chokepoints should be thinking ahead of how to manage its geopolitical vulnerabilities,\u201d said Chuin Wei Yap, programme director of international trade research at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore. \u201cWhat seems unthinkable today should not be taken as an immutable given.\u201d<\/p>\n
As Hormuz has closed in recent weeks, tensions have grown in South-east Asia. Singapore has strongly opposed negotiating with Iran to pay tolls in Hormuz, Malaysia has defended its talks with the Islamic Republic and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has touted his nation\u2019s proximity to the Malacca Strait as a source of its geopolitical strength while deepening military cooperation with the US.<\/p>\n
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\u201cDo we realise how important Indonesia is? How strategic and key our position is?\u201d Prabowo said while addressing Indonesian officials last week, underscoring that roughly 70 per cent of East Asia\u2019s energy and trade passes through Indonesian waters, including the Malacca Strait. \u201cWe must understand that we are always the focus of the world\u2019s attention.\u201d<\/p>\n
Shortly afterwards, Indonesia\u2019s Defence Ministry confirmed it was weighing a proposal from the Trump administration that could allow US military overflights through Indonesian airspace. That sparked a debate within the country\u2019s military establishment.<\/p>\n
Arm Oke Kistiyanto, a colonel in Indonesia\u2019s armed forces, published a lengthy assessment on a military website suggesting that an overflight deal could pull the nation into regional contingencies beyond its control while posing an \u201centrapment risk\u201d.<\/p>\n
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