\n<\/p>\n
It led the English economist Thomas Malthus to develop his famous theory that human population grows exponentially and always outstrips food production until famine or war breaks the cycle, only to bring the people back to subsistence level.<\/p>\n
It was known as the Malthusian trap at the time, an inescapable fate that few countries would be able to overcome.<\/p>\n
He did not foresee the industrial revolution which increased food and manufacturing capacities to unprecedented levels, resulting in an escape from his trap.<\/p>\n
Oded noted all this but extended his argument further to make this important point: As human skill and talent was what mattered most during the technological revolution of the 20th century, parents began to invest more heavily in the education of their children. Given limited resources, this required them to have fewer children resulting in a dramatic drop in fertility rates.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the opportunity cost of child-rearing increased as more women entered the work force, making it even more attractive to have smaller families.<\/p>\n
This period in which birth rates fell significantly in the developed economies, coincided with the most sustained period of economic growth in the world, after World War II.<\/p>\n
In an essay in the Annual Review of Economics last year, he wrote: \u201cThis significant decline in fertility rate\u2026 (allowed) technological advancements to generate enduring prosperity rather than temporary gains. With an increasingly skilled workforce and greater investment in human capital, technological progress further accelerated, enhancing human prosperity and delivering sustained growth in per capita income.\u201d<\/p>\n
For him, therefore, the decline in fertility rates over the last 60 years was a major driver of progress and prosperity, not of gloom and doom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n