If the TFR remains at 0.87, this would translate to just 44 children and 19 grandchildren for every 100 residents today, DPM Gan explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cOver time, it will be practically impossible to reverse the trend because we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Professor Jean Yeung, director of social sciences at the A*STAR Institute for Human Development and Potential,\u00a0cautioned that without \u201csubstantial\u201d numbers of immigration, Singapore\u2019s population would age rapidly and eventually shrink, as each generation would be substantially smaller than the one before.<\/p>\n
Even with the 2025 TFR of 0.87 and current levels of immigration, the percentage of seniors aged 65 and older would rise from 20.7 per cent in 2025 to about 26 per cent to 29 per cent in 2050.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the percentage of people who are of working age would start to decline in the mid-2030s, said Prof Yeung, who is also from the department of paediatrics at the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n
This means there will be fewer people of working age supporting each senior in the population, and a smaller proportion of the population paying taxes.<\/p>\n
This would lead to greater fiscal pressures for Singapore, unless there is an increase in the number of immigrants or labour productivity, Prof Yeung explained.<\/p>\n
The replacement rate is the level of fertility at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next without relying on immigration.\u00a0Globally, the rate is estimated to be around 2.1 births per woman.<\/p>\n
Dr Tan Poh Lin, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, said that if every woman has two children in her lifetime, she would \u201creplace\u201d herself and her husband.<\/p>\n
However, the replacement rate is set at 2.1 instead of 2 to account for the possibility that some children, either male or female, may die before having children.<\/p>\n
Another reason is that more boys are born than girls, said Prof Yeung. Globally, about 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. That means roughly 48.8 per cent of babies are female.<\/p>\n
Since only daughters can replace mothers demographically, slightly more than two babies per woman are needed to ensure one surviving daughter per woman.<\/p>\n
Singapore has one of the lowest TFRs in the world \u2013 0.87 in 2025.<\/p>\n
South Korea recorded the world\u2019s lowest TFR in 2023 at 0.72, but it rose for two consecutive years to 0.8 in 2025, according to preliminary data. <\/p>\n
In Hong Kong, the TFR was 0.84 in 2024.<\/p>\n
Most developed countries have higher fertility rates than Singapore\u2019s. For example, in 2024, the TFR was 1.15 in Japan, 1.48 in Australia, 1.6 in the United States, and 1.62 in France.<\/p>\n
Dr Tan said it makes sense to compare Singapore with other cities, rather than with entire countries, due to factors such as housing costs, income levels, and access to community support and formal care.<\/p>\n
She noted that rural regions generally have higher TFRs than cities, due to reasons such as lower costs of living, cultural differences, and the fact that children are more likely to help with farm work and other rural activities.<\/p>\n
The TFR and the crude birth rate measure different things.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The crude birth rate counts the total number of babies born per 1,000 people in a specific year.<\/p>\n
The TFR looks at the average number of children a woman would have over her reproductive years.<\/p>\n
Prof Yeung said that in rapidly ageing societies such as Singapore, the TFR is the more appropriate indicator used for long-term planning purposes, such as estimating how many immigrants are needed to reach a certain population size or predicting when the population would start to decline.<\/p>\n
The crude birth rate is more relevant for short-term planning, such as estimating how much in Baby Bonus incentives the Government has to spend over the next few years or the number of teachers needed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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