SINGAPORE – Singapore\u2019s resident total fertility rate (TFR) sank to a new low of 0.87 in 2025, deepening concerns over how this trend and the rapidly ageing population will reshape society and the economy.<\/p>\n
Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said on Feb 26 that with birth rates falling at an unprecedented pace, Singapore\u2019s citizen population may start to shrink by the early 2040s without new interventions.<\/p>\n
Mr Gan, who spoke at the debate on the budget for the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, said the top priority will be to continue supporting Singaporeans in forming families.<\/p>\n
But he also illustrated what it means for Singapore if the TFR, which refers to the average number of babies each woman would have during her reproductive years, remains at 0.87.<\/p>\n
This would translate into just 44 children and 19 grandchildren for every 100 residents today, he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cOver time, it will be practically impossible to reverse the trend, as we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Mr Gan stressed the need to therefore have a \u201ccarefully managed immigration flow to augment our low birth rate\u201d.<\/p>\n Depending on demographic trends, the Government expects to take in between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens a year over the next five years, he said. <\/p>\n About 25,000 individuals became Singapore citizens in 2025. An average of 21,300 citizenships were granted yearly between 2020 and 2024, according to the Population In Brief 2025 report.<\/p>\n Similarly, the number of new permanent residents (PR) is also expected to increase to about 40,000 a year over the next five years, Mr Gan said. Last year, some 35,000 people became PRs. <\/p>\n Mr Gan said the Government will maintain a stable citizen core and continue to be selective about new immigrants. <\/p>\n It will also manage the pace of immigration to ensure that the development of public infrastructure, such as housing and transport, keeps pace with population growth.<\/p>\n He also re-iterated that Singapore\u2019s total population will be significantly lower than 6.9 million by 2030 – and that even as the population is expected to grow. However, it is likely to grow at a slower rate than over the past five years.<\/p>\n The 6.9 million figure, first revealed in a Population White Paper released in 2013, drew widespread consternation over concerns of overcrowding, among other things.<\/p>\n The Government has said that this figure is not a target, but a planning parameter. <\/p>\n Mr Gan said that if present demographic trends continue, it would still take a \u201cconsiderable\u201d time to reach 6.9 million. And the Government will review the situation by 2030.<\/p>\n He added: \u201cWe will maintain the broad ethnic balance of our citizen population, and continue to carefully manage the impact of immigration on our population composition, to preserve the overall texture of our society.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Gan, who said he spoke plainly about Singapore\u2019s demographic challenges, acknowledged concerns and anxieties that Singaporeans have about immigration.<\/p>\n He said: \u201cWill bringing in immigrants mean fewer job opportunities for me? Will the Singapore that my children grow up in feel vastly different from the one I grew up in?\u201d<\/p>\n The Government takes such concerns seriously and will continue to address them, such as stepping up integration efforts between new immigrants and Singaporeans, he added.<\/p>\n On the existential demographic challenges facing the Republic, Mr Gan stressed that the Government will do more to support Singaporeans in their marriage and parenthood aspirations.<\/p>\n This even as marriage rates have fallen, while those who are married have fewer or no children. <\/p>\n All these factors led to only about 27,500 resident births in 2025, the lowest number in Singapore\u2019s recorded history.<\/p>\n This is a drop of about 11 per cent from the 30,808 resident births in 2024. A resident birth refers to a child born to at least one parent who is a Singaporean or permanent resident.<\/p>\n And the slide downwards is quick, given that the TFR stood at 1.24 a decade ago in 2015.<\/p>\n \u201cLow birth rates and an ageing population will profoundly reshape our nation, our society and our economy in the years ahead,\u201d Mr Gan said.<\/p>\n He noted that the citizen population, even with immigration, grew at just 0.7 per cent in 2025 and this has slowed over the past decade.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, he said Singapore\u2019s population is ageing \u201cfaster than ever\u201d.<\/p>\n One in five citizens was aged 65 and older in 2025, up from one in 8 in 2015.<\/p>\n The plunging births and rapidly ageing population have massive implications on multiple fronts, from weakening family support networks to slowing economic growth.<\/p>\n He said: \u201cAt a macro level, a declining economy means less vitality in our city and economy. Our economic growth, and correspondingly, our income growth will slow.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd with fewer citizens, it will become increasingly difficult to meet our national security and defence needs. This raises the deeper question of what Singapore will be 50 or 100 years from now – will we remain vibrant, liveable and relevant? Will we exist?\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Gan also noted that local workforce growth has slowed, adding that Singapore needs skilled foreign workers to fill critical manpower gaps and help companies build new capabilities.<\/p>\n And in turn, this would also create more jobs for Singaporeans, he said.<\/p>\n He gave the example of how the number of Singaporeans in professional, manager, executive and technician jobs rose by 308,000 in the past decade, while the number of EP and S Pass holders rose by 24,000.<\/p>\n But Mr Gan also stressed the need to keep a close eye on the growth of the non-resident population, such as foreign workers, to ensure that citizens remain the majority of Singapore\u2019s population.<\/p>\n In the past five years, the foreign workforce, including domestic helpers, grew at an average of 3.3 per cent a year. This was primarily driven by the post-pandemic construction boom.<\/p>\n If work permit holders in the construction industry are excluded, the foreign workforce grew at an average of 2.5 per cent a year.<\/p>\n Mr Gan said migrant workers, such as construction workers and domestic helpers, do not fight with Singaporeans for jobs, but the key is to plan ahead to support their numbers such as catering for dormitories, transport and recreational spaces.<\/p>\n In contrast, Employment Pass and S Pass holders, who are better qualified and command higher wages than work permit holders, make up less than a quarter of the foreign workforce, he added. He was responding to questions on job competition by PAP MPs Xie Yao Quan (Jurong Central) and Yip Hon Weng (Yio Chu Kang).<\/p>\n Mr Gan said the Government will step up efforts to create good jobs for Singaporeans and strengthen measures to ensure fair employment practices.<\/p>\n \u201cLet me be clear that we are not chasing growth for growth\u2019s sake. Economic growth is the means to an end, which is to improve the lives of Singaporeans.<\/p>\n He added: \u201cWe will keep close track of the population size and composition, to ensure that trends are sustainable, that infrastructure needs are met in a timely and adequate way, and that Singaporeans ultimately benefit from our population policies.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/picture><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n