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The global smartphone market is forecasted to enter 2026 facing mounting headwinds. <\/p>\n
Counterpoint Research\u2019s latest Global Smartphone Shipment Tracker and Forecast suggests that worldwide shipments are projected to drop 2.1% <\/b>next year, driven largely by surging memory costs.<\/p>\n
Counterpoint\u2019s research director MS Hwang noted that the impact of higher memory prices is already being felt in the entry-level segment. BoM (bill of materials) costs have risen by around 20% to 30% since the start of the year, while the mid- and high-end segments have seen increases of 10% to 15%.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, memory prices are expected to climb a further 40%<\/b> through Q2 2026. Counterpoint estimates this could push BoM costs up by another 8% to 15%<\/b>, making it increasingly unsustainable for phone makers to launch new entry-level models. Average selling prices (ASPs)<\/b> of phones are also predicted to rise by 6.9%<\/b>, a trend that could further dampen consumer demand over the coming year.<\/p>\n
Major phone brands such as Apple and Samsung are better positioned to weather these pressures, thanks to their broad product portfolios, especially in the premium segment, and tight vertical integration. They also have greater flexibility to deploy mitigation strategies, including reusing older components and steering consumers towards higher-end \u201cPro\u201d models. If brands decide to push the cost increase to consumers rather than absorb it, it goes without saying that users, in what is likely to be an economically-challenging year ahead, are more likely to hold off their smartphone upgrade in 2026. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Korean news site ETNews reported that Samsung may launch the Galaxy S26 series at higher starting prices<\/b> as component prices continue to climb. TSMC, the biggest and most advanced chipmaker, reportedly informed major clients of upcoming price hikes for high-end chips<\/b>.<\/p>\n
A key driver behind these increases is the surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI servers<\/b>, which has led manufacturers to scale back production of mobile memory chips, creating shortages and pushing prices higher. <\/p>\n
Source: Counterpoint Research<\/p>\n<\/div>\n