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Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra faces mounting legal and political challenges, which analysts believe will keep him in prison beyond the next general election, severely undermining the Pheu Thai Party’s ability to lead a coalition government.<\/p>\n
Thaksin and his family were dealt two major blows on Monday. First, the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) decided to appeal the lower court’s decision to acquit Thaksin of lese majeste charges stemming from his interview with a South Korean newspaper in 2015.<\/p>\n
Second, the Supreme Court ordered him to pay 17.6 billion baht in taxes related to the 2006 sale of his Shin Corp shares. Earlier rulings had favoured Thaksin, but the Supreme Court reversed those decisions, declaring the Revenue Department’s tax assessment lawful.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Thaksin remains incarcerated, serving a one-year sentence linked to the Police General Hospital 14th floor controversy, meaning he will likely remain behind bars for the expected election next January.<\/p>\n
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, director of the Politics and Development Strategy Programme at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), said Thaksin’s imprisonment will have a direct impact on Pheu Thai’s election prospects as “big house” powerful politicians may reconsider their loyalty, fearing diminished chances of re-election in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n
Combined with declining popularity reflected in recent Nida polls, he predicted Pheu Thai may secure only 50\u201360 of the 500 House seats in both constituency and party-list systems. Much of the lost support, he said, will likely shift to the main opposition People’s Party, the Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party and emerging nationalist groups.<\/p>\n
Olan Thinbangtiaw, a legal and political science scholar at Burapha University, said that as Pheu Thai’s ‘spiritual leader’, Thaksin’s imprisonment will inevitably erode public support for the party at the polling stations.<\/p>\n
He suggested any renewed activism could trigger further legal cases involving his daughter and former premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra and his younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, also a former prime minister.<\/p>\n
He may now have to step back from leadership and align with the BJT, which is positioning itself to form the next government.<\/p>\n
However, with only 50\u201360 MPs, Mr Olan predicted that while conservative blocs may still include Pheu Thai in a coalition, its bargaining power will be limited.<\/p>\n
The analysts agreed that Pheu Thai faces a steep decline in influence. Once the dominant force in Thai politics, the party now risks being reduced to a supporting role with the BJT as probable coalition leader.<\/p>\n
They also pointed to the collapse of so-called “reconciliation deals” between power brokers, which made the previous Pheu Thai-led administration possible, leaving Pheu Thai struggling to retain relevance.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n